Research

In-House Research Leads to Investment Success

Research plays a crucial role in all phases of our investment process from acquisitions to property management to dispositions. Our research publications are used to educate potential investors, while keeping our current clients informed of topics relevant to their portfolio.

All of our in-house research publications are accessible to the public.

Current

January 2020, Farmland Flash Report: U.S. and China Reach Phase One Trade Deal, Boosting Prospects for U.S. Farm Sector

On January 15, 2020, the U.S. and China signed a phase one trade deal that featured a commitment by China to purchase U.S. farm products in 2020 and 2021 totaling $80 billion, compared to a baseline 2017 amount of $24 billion, an incremental increase of $12.5 billion in 2020 and $19.5 billion in 2021 ($32 billion total).

Current

January 2020, Farmland Investor: U.S. Farm Economy

The well-being of the U.S. farm sector received a mixed review in the November 2019 USDA Farm Income and Wealth Statistics report, which estimated that 2019 net income for farms rose 10% over 2018’s, reflecting close to flat cash receipts, stable costs and greater government support. This last factor was the single largest contributor to gains in 2019 net farm income, reflecting a 64% year-over-year increase in direct government payments, to $22.4 billion – the highest since 2005.

Current

August 2019, Hancock Farmland Investor: Taking Stock of Farmland Cash Yields: a Comparative Analysis

Institutional investors seek to diversify their multi-asset portfolios by acquiring real assets such as farmland, timberland and commercial real estate. Farmland’s strong cash yield is a significant benefit that could provide stability in today’s environment of market volatility.

Current

Natural Resource Flash Report, August 2019: U.S.‑ China Trade Tensions Escalate

On August 6th 2019, China ordered its state-owned enterprises to suspend all agricultural imports from the U.S., in response to the recently announced 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese goods by the U.S starting in September. Private buyers in China have followed suit, citing uncertainties in the U.S.-China trade talks.

Current

May 2019, Hancock Farmland Investor: Estimated U.S. 2019 Planted Acreage Declines 1.3% y-o-y, Led by Soybeans and Wheat

The March 2019 USDA Prospective Plantings Report predicts that soybean, wheat, cotton and rice acreage will contract this year, with some offset from increased corn acreage. The overall decline in row crop planted acres reflects reduced price expectations for major row crops such as corn, cotton, rice, soybeans and wheat, with soybeans experiencing the biggest acreage decline – 5% – in response to lower soybean prices.

Current

April 2019, Natural Resource Flash Report: Canada and China Clash over Canola Trade

In March 2019, China rescinded the export licenses of the two largest Canadian canola companies, Richardson International and Viterra, to ship canola to China, citing non-compliance with plant health requirements. These two companies own four of the fourteen major canola crushing facilities in Canada. China also intensified its inspection measures and standards for canola seed imports from Canada, and intends to import far less product from Canada, according to Chinese Agriculture Ministry officials.

Current

February 2019, NCREIF Farmland Returns Improve in 2018 After Bottoming Out in 2017

U.S. farmland properties returned 6.7 percent in 2018 (55 bps above 2017). This marked the first improvement in annual returns after four consecutive years of declines. Annual cropland properties returned 5.9 percent in 2018 (117 bps above 2017), and permanent crop properties returned 8.2 percent (9 bps above 2017). In 2018, institutional farmland investment (as reported by NCREIF) grew in terms of both the number of properties and value.

Current

January 2019, Natural Resource Flash Report: Impact of Shutdown on Timberland and Farmland Timberland

We believe the extended federal government shutdown will be very limited in meaningful, direct impacts on the U.S. timber or forest products sectors. On the supply side, timber harvests on U.S. federal forests have not been a significant or consistent source of raw material to producers of lumber, wood panels or pulp since the early 1990s.

Current

January 2019, Hancock Farmland Research Brief: Total Trade Mitigation Payments Announced Reach $9.6 billion: Implications for Agriculture and Farmland Investments

On December 17, 2018, President Trump announced the second round of financial aid to U.S. farmers most impacted by the retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products imposed by major U.S. trading partners in 2018. The Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payments will be distributed by the USDA Farm Service Agency in early 2019, with the USDA estimating that payments will total $4.8 billion for this round, on top of the $4.8 billion sent to farmers in fall 2018.

Current

December 2018, Hancock Farmland Investor, The U.S. Farm Economy

The USDA Farm Income and Wealth Statistics report released 11/30/2018 projected a 12% decline in 2018 net farm income, partially reversing the gains realized in 2017. Rising costs and relatively flat cash receipts were the key factors driving the reversal in the direction of net farm income.

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